Observing a skilful artisan at work can be so rewarding. To see how they control their tools, craft and material to create something from nothing. You may even think that they can do it with their eyes closed.

On the contrary, seeing a trader or gambler at work is not for the faint at heart. We will forgive you thinking that they require Buckley’s hope to achieve results. But how often do we misjudge luck and variance for skill?

Frequently, we base our judgement on a small sample of seemingly successful traders and leaders. In the process, we identify skills and categorize them as a requirement. Where in fact, many with the same skillset were not able to make it.

Bottom line: Only focusing on the successful will blind you for real reasons of success.